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Kent's avatar

Um, dude, what the fuck is this doing on Substack? It's way too amazing and data-driven and real.

I can barely follow most of the details, and my math is rusty, and so I'm sure I missed a lot. But I really enjoyed the explanation of why "infinite" error applies. Because the curve literally bends the wrong way, "to infinity and beyond" comes to mind.

Also, I'm sure you're tired of "stiffness" jokes, but "there is no upper bound to the erroneous stiffening" may be the best metaphor I've ever heard for what it's like for boys to go through puberty.

Adam Mastroianni (Experimental History) sent me here. I feel like what *he* would want me to take away from your argument is that we very possibly don't know much of anything about very much of anything, because even w/r/t the things we think we know a great deal about, it can turn out that we're doing it wrong. What else would you have me take away from it (given that I'm not going to pursue a career in AFM)?

Thanks so much for writing this. It's a sin and a crime that it doesn't have a thousand likes and a hundred comments.

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Seth Miller's avatar

Another referral from Adam.

FWIW, it's not just you. As an industry chemist who has worked on the edge of industry and academia for a couple of decades, I'd say that at best 50% of academic chemistry articles are reproducible. And this is for cheap, easy to reproduce stuff! Like, things that took me a couple days in lab. At least in medicine they have the excuse that experiments are expensive. We are just lazy.

There is no good way out of this other than to go to industry, and to work on a problem where answers have to be not just verifiable, but within statistical process control. And where someone is incentivized to care whether the next shift can get the same result. Good luck in your job search! Industry has its perverse incentives as well, but I promise you that overall, they are far, far less perverse.

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